This month there are several revisions to the U.S. 2023/24 ricebalance sheet. On the supply side, production is lowered 1.4 millionhundredweight (cwt) to 218.3 million, still 36 percent larger than a yearearlier. The downward revision is based on a slightly lower yield reported byUSDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Imports are raised 2.0million cwt to a record 42.0 million cwt. The higher import forecast more thanoffset a smaller crop, raising the total supply forecast 0.6 million cwt to290.5 million. On the 2023/24 use side, exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to85.0 million, while total domestic and residual use remains forecast at arecord 162.0 million cwt. These supply and use revisions resulted in a1.6-million cwt increase in the 2023/24 ending stocks forecast to 43.5 millioncwt, 44 percent above a year earlier.

本月对美国2023/24年稻米供应使用情况做出数个修正。稻米供应侧方面，预计产量下降140万美担（约6.35万吨）至2.18亿美担（约988.83万吨），但同比依旧增加36%。本次数据下调主要基于美国农业部国家农业统计局（NASS）的报告，其中提到稻米的亩产量有所降低。稻米进口量预计增加200万美担（约9.07万吨）至4200万美担（约190.51万吨），为历史最高值。进口量的提升抵消了亩产量下降的影响，预计供应总量上调60万美担（约2.72万吨）至2.91亿美担（约1317.69万吨）。2023/24年稻米使用侧方面，出口量预计下调100万美担（约4.54万吨）至8500万美担（约385.55万吨），而家庭消费和副产品加工用量则预计依旧为1.62亿美担（约734.82万吨），保持历史高位。上述供应和使用量的修改，导致最终该年度的期末库存量预计上调160万美担（约7.26万吨）至4350万美担（约197.31万吨），同比增加44%。

Based on data from the NASS January 12 released Rice Stocks report,U.S. stocks of rice (rough- and milled-rice stocks on a rough-rice basis) onDecember 1 are estimated at 146.8 million cwt, 29 percent larger than a yearearlier. The 2023/24 California season-average farm price (SAFP) forecast wasraised $4.00 to $30.00 per cwt, which raised the all-rice SAFP forecast 60cents to $18.40 per cwt. On January 9, NASS released revised U.S. rice area,yield, and production estimates for 2018/19‒2022/23 by State and class that arereported in the NASS Quick Stats database. All NASS production revisions weresmall, and the data were from the 2022 Census of Agriculture.

基于美国农业部于1月12日放出的稻米库存报告来看，12月1日的美国稻米库存量（以糙米计算，包含糙米和经过折算的碾米）为1.47亿美担（约666.78万吨），同比提升29%。2023/24年加州稻米平均地头价提升4美元至30美元/美担（约4.74元/公斤），导致美国全米种地头价提升60美分至18.40美元/美担（约2.9元/公斤）。美国农业部1月9日公布了从2018/19年至2022/23年的美国稻米播种面积、亩产量以及预估总产量，上述数据以各州和稻米品种为单位，都可以在农业部快查数据库阅览。农业部做出的往年数据调整都非常小，且都来源于美国农业2022年普查报告。

In the 2023/24 global rice market, production is lowered 4.5 milliontons to 513.5 million (milled basis), still the highest on record. Productionforecasts were lowered for Bangladesh, China, and the United States, with Chinaaccounting for the bulk of the reduction. Total global rice supplies in 2023/24are projected at 689.35 million tons, down 3.5 million tons from the previousforecast and 6.9 million tons below a year earlier and the second consecutiveyear of declining global rice supplies. The 2023/24 global domestic andresidual forecast was reduced 2.95 million tons to 522.1 million, also still arecord high. These revisions resulted in a 513,000-ton decrease in the 2023/24global ending stocks forecast to 167.25 million tons, 8.6 million tons below ayear earlier and the smallest in 6 years.

2023/24年的全球稻米市场方面，全球产量下降450万吨至5.14亿吨（以碾米计），但依旧是历史最高值。孟加拉国、中国和美国的预计产量下调，中国则占到下降总量的主体。该年全球稻米供应量预计为6.89亿吨，较前一份报告相比下降350万吨，同比则减少690万吨，表明全球稻米供应量已经连续缩减了两年。

The 2024 calendar year global trade forecast of 52.2 million tons isnearly unchanged from a month earlier but is 223,000 tons below 2023 trade.There were numerous export and import revisions for 2023 this month that werenearly offsetting, mostly based on final or near-final trade data. Rice tradein 2023 of 52.4 million tons was down 3.7 million tons from the year earlierrecord high, mostly due to India’s continued export bans and restrictions.

日历年2024年的全球稻米贸易预计为5220万吨，与前一份报告没有太大差别，但比2023年的贸易量要少22.3万吨。本月对2023年的进出口情况基于最终贸易数据作出了很多修改，但几乎都彼此抵消。2023年的稻米贸易最终定位5240万吨，比去年的历史最高纪录减少了370万吨，主要由于印度依旧对出口稻米施加很多禁令和限制。

Over the past month, quotes for trading prices for most grades ofregular (neither parboiled nor aromatic) whole-grain milled rice from Thailandincreased 3–4 percent, while Vietnam’s prices were unchanged from the previousmonth’s 15-year high. Price quotes for Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguayalso rose over the past month. U.S. long-grain milled-rice prices wereunchanged over the past month and remain the highest since 2008. Price quotesfor California medium-grain milled rice were also unchanged from a monthearlier and are 42 percent below the September record-high.

上个月，泰国大多数常规碾米（非蒸谷米或香米）的贸易报价减少了3-4%，而越南的贸易报价则环比不变，维持在15年以来的最高价格。巴基斯坦、阿根廷、巴西和乌拉圭的贸易报价在上个月也都有所提升。美国长粒碾米的报价环比持平，依旧是2008年以来的最高价格。加州中粒碾米的价格环比同样没有变化，但已经从九月份的历史最高价格下降了42%。

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